“Multisectoral models, built with social accounting matrices, are used to evaluate the economic impacts of the health emergency measures decreed by the Federal Government to combat the pandemic caused by Covid 19. The repercussions of these measures are analyzed from a sectoral and space perspectives. In the first case, the models have 33 productive activities, and four institutional agents (Enterprises, Homes, Government and Foreign Sector). The impacts are analyzed for national, mesoregional and state economies. The impacts of unemployment from “non-essential” activities on gross production levels, gross domestic product, household disposable income and levels of private consumption of domestic origin are considered.”
“In this research, we present a forecast of the impact of measures to stem Covid-19 on the Spanish economy at a highly disaggregate level, using input-output techniques. Our estimations cover the period 2020-2021, and we consider two scenarios depending on the possibility of a second wave of massive infections in the autumn of 2020. In 2020, the lockdown of the population and the shutdown of a large part of the production system for several weeks are a supply-side shock that will be followed by a demand-side shock whose impact is expected to be even larger. In 2021 there will be some recovery, although we believe that it will not be sufficient for offsetting the initial negative shock.”
Eladio Febrero Paños
Eladio Febrero Paños
In the years to come, 2020 will be remembered as one of the most chaotic and disruptive times we had to live. Due to the relatively unexpected outbreak of the COVID-19 virus, our societies tried to minimise the health costs by adopting social-distancing measures and changing our consumption behaviour and as fast as we could, which had obvious economic implications. Through a set of exercises, I am going to tell a tale about how systematic these shocks were. From a UK perspective, I will show three different stages that run from January to June 2020, covering the situation of regional economies during the initial months of the COVID-19 crisis. The outbreak in China and the firsts disruptions in the global value chains, the need for understanding what is essential production and what is not, and the economic exposure to a national lockdown, all these items will be analysed in this work. Overall, the study reveals how supply and demand sectoral shocks (negative and positive) were operating at the same time, and how complex the economic interrelationships are between the different agents.
Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the supply-chain effects of a set of idealized lockdown scenarios, using the latest global trade modelling framework. We find that supply-chain losses that are related to initial COVID-19 lockdowns are largely dependent on the number of countries imposing restrictions and that losses are more sensitive to the duration of a lockdown than its strictness. However, a longer containment that can eradicate the disease imposes a smaller loss than shorter ones. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A ‘go-slow’ approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns. Regardless of the strategy, the complexity of global supply chains will magnify losses beyond the direct effects of COVID-19. Thus, pandemic control is a public good that requires collective efforts and support to lower-capacity countries.